In the live broadcast of the language community: institutions frantically bargain, individual investors flee in panic! Where will Ethereum go?

Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 On one hand, institutions are aggressively raising funds, while on the other hand, the market crash has triggered panic selling among retail investors. Ethereum is experiencing a dual market pattern of ice and fire. On September 22nd, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline, with Ethereum dropping more than 6% in a single day, hitting a low of $4050, and the total amount of positions liquidated on the entire network reaching $1.8 billion. In this sharp decline, bulls have become the main victims, with over 95% of orders being liquidated. Meanwhile, a group of mysterious institutional investors are operating against the trend. The giant whale/institution, which has already made a profit of $76.05 million through the ETH band, bought 20000 ETH in a single day, worth approximately $85.96 million, after hitting the bottom due to the decline. 【 01 Signs of institutional bottom fishing show 】 Amidst the spreading market panic, large institutional investors have shown unwavering confidence in Ethereum. On chain data shows that these institutional investors are not simply "bottom fishing", but are implementing rigorous band strategies. They usually start building positions in batches after a certain degree of market decline, with huge buying volumes, demonstrating high confidence in their own judgment and strong financial strength. These institutions extensively use top market makers such as Wintermute as counterparties to obtain optimal liquidity and reduce the impact of slippage on opening costs. At the same time, spot Ethereum ETFs have also become an important channel for institutional capital inflows. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum ETF asset management scale has reached $16 billion, becoming one of the fastest-growing ETFs in history. 【 02 Retail investors fall into panic dilemma 】 In sharp contrast to the calm layout of institutions, retail investors are facing the dilemma of panic selling. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidation on the internet reached 1.7 billion US dollars, with multiple liquidation accounting for over 95%. Many retail investors were forced to close their positions during the price decline, resulting in heavy losses. Market sentiment indicators have shown signs of a pullback after overheating: the cryptocurrency fear greed index has fallen from a high of 80 to 61, but still remains in the "greed" range. The Altcoin quarterly indicator is approaching an overheated level of 65, which historically often indicates the risk of a pullback. Analysts pointed out that ETH has fallen below the important support range of $4200, and the market is closely monitoring whether the key psychological level of $4000 can be maintained. If this price falls, it may trigger more retail stop loss orders to emerge, leading to further price drops in the $3850-3900 range. The market pattern of intertwining long and short factors in 03 The current Ethereum market presents a complex situation of intense interweaving of long and short factors. From a bullish perspective, the circulation of Ethereum on the exchange has reached its lowest point in three years, with only about 17.4 million ETH. A 38% decrease in supply (compared to the peak of 28.8 million ETH in 2022) has created favorable conditions for price rebound. At the same time, Ethereum's staking mechanism also locks in a large amount of circulating supply. Currently, about 30% of the circulating amount (over 35 million ETH) is locked in pledge contracts. The design of exiting the queue for 43-45 days further reduces market selling pressure. However, risk factors cannot be ignored either. Technical analysis shows that Ethereum prices need to break through $4800 to unlock potential targets of $5200-5500. However, there is still a considerable distance between the current price and this key resistance level. Citibank has set a year-end target price of $4300, which is expected to reach $6400 in a bull market scenario and may drop to $2200 in a bear market scenario. What is the future direction of Ethereum Faced with the current complex market environment, investors are most concerned about the future direction of Ethereum. Several analysts believe that the $4000 mark will become a watershed between long and short positions. Ash Crypto believes that the current downturn may only be a "forced correction" rather than a trend reversal. He is optimistic about launching a large-scale upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025. The increase in institutional participation is changing the operational logic of the market. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine and co-founder of Fundstrat, even predicted that Ethereum prices could soar to $62000 driven by regulatory transparency and institutional involvement. As the circulation of Ethereum on exchanges continues to decrease and more institutional funds enter the market through ETF channels, changes in supply and demand structure may provide long-term support for Ethereum prices. Market participants are closely monitoring the SEC's final decision on the pledge proposal in October, which is likely to become a key factor determining Ethereum's trend in the second half of the year. For retail investors, avoiding high leverage operations and focusing on long-term value rather than short-term volatility may be a more rational investment strategy in institutional dominated markets. Operation suggestion: BTC 111750 long first target watch 112880 second target watch 114000; ETH 4130 long, first target 4196, second target 4240. Join the language community communication group to obtain more services 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system- 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.