In the live broadcast of the speech community: Can the Fed's interest rate cut save it? Why is BTC falling alone?

Click on the link to enter Tencent Meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 Despite the high expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in the market, Bitcoin (BTC) unexpectedly failed to receive a boost and instead continued to decline, approaching the $110000 mark. The phenomenon of deviating from traditional logic is the result of multiple factors working together. Firstly, the expectation of interest rate cuts may reflect economic concerns and instead suppress risk appetite. Although weak non farm payroll data has strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut, Vincent Liu, Chief Information Officer of Kronos Research, pointed out that the rate cut itself may indicate economic weakness, coupled with sustained high inflation and cautious market sentiment, limiting investors' demand for high-risk assets. Even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, without stronger inflows of ETF funds or genuine liquidity expansion, Bitcoin will find it difficult to break through the key resistance level of $120000. Secondly, the large-scale sell-off of "giant whales" has created strong market pressure. Data shows that in the past 30 days, Bitcoin Whale has sold up to 119000 BTC, marking the largest selling scale since July 2022. This large-scale outflow of assets directly increases the selling power in the market, which suppresses prices. Furthermore, the market may have already digested the benefits of interest rate cuts in advance. Bitcoin briefly surged to $113000 after the release of non farm payroll data, but then fell back. This indicates that the expectation of interest rate cuts may have been reflected in prices. BTC Markets cryptocurrency analyst Rachael Lucas also believes that the market has digested a certain degree of policy easing. Investors' attention may have shifted to the economic outlook after interest rate cuts and other uncertainties. In addition, the seasonal patterns of history cannot be ignored. September in history is often a month of weak cryptocurrency and market performance, known as the 'Red September'. The sluggish trading and portfolio rebalancing behavior may exacerbate market volatility. The recent trend of Bitcoin indicates that under the complex interweaving of macroeconomic policies, large investor behavior, market expectations, and seasonal factors, a single monetary policy benefit is difficult to simply reverse market trends. Investors need to closely monitor the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and CPI data, which may become key catalysts for the market to find new directions The behavior of institutional investors: The sustained buying of ETFs and other products by institutions is an important bullish driving force. But at the same time, attention should also be paid to the short-term pressure that may be brought about by the large-scale selling of "whale" addresses. Macroeconomic environment: The monetary policies of major global economies (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy) and inflation levels will significantly affect the price of Bitcoin. When interest rates fall, assets such as Bitcoin are usually more favored. Regulatory dynamics: Changes in regulatory policies for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies by governments of various countries are an undeniable risk factor, and policy tightening may have a short-term impact on prices. The effectiveness of technological forms: Currently, the market is closely monitoring whether the possible "head and shoulder top" bearish form will be confirmed. In the face of a market with long short divergence, you can consider: For long-term investors: Consider adopting a Fixed Term Investment (DCA) strategy, which can help smooth entry costs and avoid the risk of buying at high points all at once. For short-term traders: it is necessary to closely monitor the breakthrough situation of the two key price levels of $112000 and $108000. If you make an upward breakthrough, you can consider following up, but if you make a downward breakthrough, you need to be alert to deeper pullback risks. Setting a stop loss is very important. For all investors: Reasonably allocate assets and do not invest all funds in high volatility assets such as Bitcoin. A deep understanding of Bitcoin and its risks is a mandatory course before investing. The cryptocurrency market (including Bitcoin) is highly volatile and carries enormous risks. The future trend of the market is influenced by multiple factors, and any prediction is subject to uncertainty. All the above information does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own in-depth research (DYOR) before making an investment decision and only invest funds that you can afford to lose. Operation suggestion: - BTC 110550 long, first target watch 111650, second target watch 112850; - ETH 4255 long. First target: 4325. Second target: 4375. Join the language community communication group to obtain more services 1. Real time troubleshooting (online one-on-one question answering and sorting) 2. Professional technical analysis and theoretical learning 3. Construction and improvement of trading system- 4. Live streaming courses every day, contract termination, real-time order making, to help you successfully land! Every day, there are teachers in the group who provide precise positioning to answer questions and offer free guidance. Tencent Meeting Live: 985-066-2513 DingTalk Group Number: 120320009032 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.