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1、 Bitcoin (BTC) intraday analysis
1. Price performance
Current price: $112725.86 (down 2.56% from the previous day)
Key support/resistance:
Support level: $110000-110000 (short-term key psychological threshold)
Resistance level: $114000-115000 (requires breakthrough to restore bullish trend)
2. Driving factors
The impact of Federal Reserve policy: After cutting interest rates by 25 basis points last week, Powell hinted that subsequent interest rate cuts would be evaluated in meetings one by one, leading to a cooling of market expectations for easing and pressure on risk assets.
Technical signal: RSI is approaching oversold (around 45), MACD shows increased bearish momentum, and if it falls below $110000, it may further explore the support level of $106000.
3. Risk Warning
The risk of a US government shutdown and inflation data (PCE data on September 26) may exacerbate volatility.
On chain data shows that exchange reserves are at a multi-year low and liquidity risk still exists.
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2、 Ethereum (ETH) intraday analysis
1. Price performance
Current price: $4192 (down 6.34% in 24 hours)
Key support/resistance:
Support level: $4000-3950 (200 day moving average of $3992)
Resistance level: $4440 (needs to be recovered to stabilize long positions)
2. Driving factors
Differentiation between institutional and spot funds:
ETF funds continued to flow in (earning $1.12 billion last week), but there was a net outflow of $274 million from spot exchanges, indicating a fierce game between institutions and retail investors.
Technical signal:
After breaking through the key support level of $4300, the parabolic turning indicator remained higher than the price, and the bearish trend continued.
If it stands firmly at the support of $4000, it may rebound to $4500; If it falls below, the target points to $3800.
3. Positive signals
Whales increase holdings: Mid end wallets (1000-10000 ETH) increase holdings to a new high since 2018, boosting long-term confidence.
Exchange reserves have fallen to historical lows, and scarcity supports the potential for price rebound.
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3、 Market overall risk and strategic recommendations
1. Macro risk
The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points fell through, and the market turned cautious.
The risk of a US government shutdown and inflation data (PCE) could trigger a chain reaction.
2. Operation strategy
Bitcoin:
Short term: If the rebound reaches $113000, you can take a light short position and stop loss at $113500, with a target of $111000.
Long term: Pay attention to the support of $110000, and break below to explore $106000.
Ethereum:
Short term: Build long in batches within the range of $4000-3950, and target $4700 if you break through $4440.
Strict stop loss measures are implemented to avoid chasing high prices, with current volatility exceeding 4% (September average 2.8%).
3. Position management
It is recommended to keep the total position within 50% and prioritize the allocation of Bitcoin (with stable institutional demand).
Avoid leveraged trading, with 97% of recent long positions being liquidated.
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4、 Focus points for tomorrow
Data: September 26th US PCE inflation data (market expectation year-on-year 2.7%).
Event: Speech by Federal Reserve officials (may strengthen expectations of "gradual interest rate cuts").
Technical signal: Bitcoin at $110000, Ethereum at $4000 support level gains and losses.
Summary: The current market is dominated by macro sentiment, and technical indicators show that short-term pullback pressure still exists, but long-term support has not been disrupted. It is recommended to focus on risk control and pay attention to the flow of institutional funds and changes in on chain data.
In this rebound led by Bitcoin, we have witnessed the power of technical analysis and the infinite possibilities of the market. Let's remain calm and continue to follow, because the story of Bitcoin continues. Welcome to the live broadcast room for communication, and at the same time, share practical knowledge and secret tactics!
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
