[Analyst: The likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is low, with market expectations focusing more on the long-term easing path]
Kieran Williams, Head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, stated that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points next week is low, unless core inflation data unexpectedly falls significantly below expectations. Due to the stickiness of service prices and the Fed's tendency to gradually release policy signals, the chances of a sharp rate cut are minimal. However, upcoming data may influence market expectations for the easing path toward the end of the year.
Matt Simpson, Senior Market Analyst at City Index, believes that a 50 basis point rate cut at this time could harm market confidence more than its potential benefits. Additionally, the Federal Reserve may not fully yield to external pressures. Simpson pointed out that the market currently expects rate cuts at each of the next three meetings. The Fed could choose to align with this expectation or increase the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 without taking aggressive action next week.
