[UBS: Overturning Trump Tariffs Could Prompt Fed Rate Cuts] UBS Group analysis suggests that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariff policies illegal, the U.S. government may need to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes to importers, accounting for 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for the 2025 fiscal year. This move could trigger fiscal shocks and create a low-tariff trade environment, benefiting the U.S. economy and stock market. UBS expects the government may rebuild tariff barriers through measures like the Trade Act of 1974, but this could take several quarters. The ruling could lower effective tariff rates, boost household purchasing power, ease inflation, and provide room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Stock market investors may view this positively.