[Goldman Sachs: Trump Tariffs May Be Ruled Illegal, But Overall Trade Impact Limited] Goldman Sachs analysis points out that during oral arguments, the U.S. Supreme Court raised doubts about the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with the likelihood of the tariffs being ruled unconstitutional increasing. Prediction markets indicate that the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs has dropped by approximately 10 percentage points, and the final ruling is expected to be announced between December 2025 and January 2026. If the tariffs are ruled illegal, the government may need several months to refund approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in collected tariffs. However, it is expected that similar tariffs will be reintroduced through other legal avenues. As a result, the overall impact on trade dynamics is expected to be limited, with tariff adjustments likely to involve smaller trade partners and have minimal effects on major economies such as the EU. In the short term, the handling of refunds and tariff adjustments may trigger market volatility.