[Bitcoin Falls Below the Critical $100,000 Support Level, Market Sentiment Impacted by Dollar Strength and Policy Uncertainty]
Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that Bitcoin fell below the critical psychological threshold of $100,000 overnight, leading to a synchronized decline in global risk assets. This pullback was primarily driven by the strengthening U.S. dollar and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies, significantly reducing market risk appetite. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of approximately $1.3 billion over four consecutive days, with the momentum that drove gains earlier this year now turning into short-term resistance. Weak spot demand and forced deleveraging coexisted, with over $1 billion in long positions liquidated during the price dip, followed by dip-buying activity. In the options market, net short gamma positions were maintained near the $100,000 strike price, and hedging activities by traders further exacerbated price volatility.
On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. government shutdown delayed the release of non-farm payroll data, leaving the market reliant on private indicators to assess economic trends. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October but issued cautious signals, weakening expectations for a December rate cut. The strengthening dollar may further tighten credit conditions. For Bitcoin to resume its upward trend, a reversal in ETF outflows and a recovery in risk sentiment will be necessary.