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もっと >今日 2025-10-18
In the live broadcast of Fuxi Community, Ethereum - $4100 becomes a key point of contention
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Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9309732027 The digital currency market is fluctuating, with Ethereum hovering between key support and resistance, and the future trend shrouded in fog. Over the past week, Ethereum (ETH) has been fiercely contested around $4200, with both long and short sides in a stalemate. On October 15th, the price of Ethereum briefly rose above $4200, with a 5.18% increase in the past 24 hours, but then fell back from the daily high of $4262 and fluctuated around $4100. This trend of rising and falling perfectly illustrates the hesitation of the current market. Weekly Market Review Ethereum has shown a clear downward trend of oscillation in the past week. Based on the high point of $4712.16 on September 12th, the price of ETH has fallen by approximately 12.4%. Although there were multiple rebounds during this period, none of them broke through the previous high, forming a pattern of gradually lowering the low point. The price fluctuates repeatedly in the range of $4100-4200, lacking clear direction guidance. The significant decline in market trading volume indicates a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors. This narrow oscillation pattern indicates that Ethereum is at a critical choice point and may face directional breakthroughs at any time. Analysis of long and short factors, short signals From a technical perspective, Ethereum's daily chart shows a bearish trend. The EMA fast line is lower than the slow line, forming a dead cross, and the price is running below the two EMAs, confirming the short-term weak pattern. The MACD indicator also shows that bearish momentum is dominant. DIF and DEA are both negative values, and the bar chart continues to be negative. In addition, the resistance point of 4275 at EMA30 for two consecutive days has hindered price increases. If this key resistance cannot be effectively overcome, Ethereum may face further downside risks. [Long hopes] Despite clear bearish signals, there is still a glimmer of hope for bulls. The four hour candlestick shows that the price has returned to the trend indicator and broken through the $4100 level of the EMA30 line. The adherence to key support levels also brings confidence to the bulls. At present, the area around $3950 is a key support zone, and chip distribution data indicates strong buying activity in this region. At the same time, KDJ entered the oversold area and formed a golden cross signal, further verifying the possibility of a short-term rebound. Key positions and operational strategies According to the judgment of multiple analysts, Ethereum is currently at a critical technological point. In terms of support levels: the main support is in the range of $3800-3850 (the low point area in October), and the secondary support is in the range of $4100-4120 (the current downward trend). The integer threshold of $4000 is also an important psychological support. In terms of resistance levels: the main resistance is between $4480-4520 (the high point of the previous rebound), and the secondary resistance is between $4350-4380 (the pressure zone of the EMA moving average). In the short term, $4310 is also a key pressure level. In terms of operational strategy, analysts have provided specific suggestions: Northbound trial position: $3850 to $3800, defend at $3750, stop loss at 50 points, target at $3900 to $3950. Southbound trial position: $4240 to $4290, defense at $4340, stop loss at 50 points, target at $4150 to $4100. Long term influencing factors In addition to short-term technical factors, Ethereum also faces some fundamental factors that affect its long-term trend. On the supply side, analyst Crypto Gucci pointed out that 40% of ETH has been withdrawn from circulation, which is unprecedented in the history of Ethereum. Specifically, the Digital Asset Treasury (DATs) has accumulated 5.9 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply; The US spot Ethereum ETF has purchased 6.84 million ETH, accounting for 5.6% of the total supply; Another 35.7 million ETH are in a pledged state, accounting for nearly 30% of the total supply. The sharp contrast between this supply contraction and the record breaking demand from institutions may have a significant impact on future prices. Some entrepreneurs even predict that the fair value of ETH in this cycle may reach $8000-10000. In the next few days, Ethereum needs to break through the resistance level of $4350 to initiate a rebound, but if it falls below the support level of $4100, it may further explore the support area of $3800. Strictly controlling positions and setting stop losses are key to survival until the market trend becomes clear. As a cryptocurrency expert once said, "The market is always right. If you are wrong, you should reflect on where your own problems lie and not let the profits that should have been obtained fly away Meeting Number: 9309732027 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
