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As the market holds its breath in anticipation of the US August non farm payroll report, a collision between the direction of Federal Reserve policy and the fate of the cryptocurrency market is about to unfold. Economists predict that non farm employment may only increase by 75000 people this time, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3% (the highest point since 2021), continuing the weakest employment growth trend since the pandemic. If this data comes true, it will completely "lock in" the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September.
Weak data becomes a catalyst for interest rate cuts
Recently, multiple indicators have shown that the US labor market is "freezing": ADP private employment data only increased by 54000 people (lower than the expected 75000), initial jobless claims rose to a new high since June, and corporate recruitment plans fell to historical lows. The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September has soared to 97%, and there are even calls for a 50 basis point rate cut. Morgan Stanley, UBS and other institutions believe that the Federal Reserve may initiate a continuous cycle of interest rate cuts to address the risk of economic slowdown.
The 'Dual Game' of BTC
Bitcoin is currently in the eye of a storm. On the one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts usually benefits risk assets, and weak economic data may drive funds into cryptocurrencies seeking safe haven; On the other hand, if the job market deteriorates excessively and triggers concerns of economic recession, it may actually suppress investors' confidence in high-risk assets. Recently, although the price of Bitcoin has remained stable around $110000, it has still fallen by about 10% from its historical high in August. Its trend is highly correlated with US technology stocks, and tonight's data may determine whether it can break the "September pullback curse".
Ultimate Collision: The Game of Data and Policy
The significance of tonight's non farm payroll report goes far beyond a single data point - it may become the ultimate trigger for whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a "wave of interest rate cuts". If the data meets or falls below expectations, the market may cheer for the approaching interest rate cut, driving BTC to rebound in the short term; If the data is unexpectedly strong, it may overturn the current consensus and trigger severe fluctuations. The more profound impact is that the sustained weakness in the labor market may even force the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive easing policies, opening a new round of liquidity gates for assets such as Bitcoin.
The crossroads of risk and opportunity
For investors, tonight is not only a showdown between non farm payroll and interest rate cuts, but also the ultimate test of macroeconomic policies and market confidence. BTC, as an emerging safe haven asset and risk indicator, will face a key validation of price and narrative on this night - the worse the data, the stronger the upward trend? The answer is about to be revealed.
Operation suggestion:
- BTC 110550 long first target watch 111560 second target watch 112850;
ETH 4280 long, first target is 4340, second target is 4395.
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Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
