Over the past week, concerns about trade tensions have further eased. Despite a series of mixed economic data, the unexpectedly strong non farm payroll report, which has received the most attention, has also eased concerns about slowing economic growth. In the coming week, the market's attention will shift towards central bank interest rate decisions, including those of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In terms of economic data, the service industry PMI of multiple countries around the world will be released. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 21:45 on Monday, the final S&P Global Services PMI for April in the United States;
Tuesday 9:45, China's April Caixin Service PMI;
At 1:00 on Wednesday, the auction of 10-year treasury bond bonds from the United States to May 6;
At 2:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision;
At 2:30 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3rd in the United States;
Thursday 23:00, April New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations;
At 18:15 on Friday, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a keynote speech at the 2025 Reykjavik Economic Conference;
At 20:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivered a speech;
On Friday 22:00, 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby delivered a welcome and opening speech at a Fed event;
On Friday at 22:40, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered a speech;
On Friday at 23:30, FOMC permanent voting committee member and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams delivered a speech at the Hoover monetary policy meeting (via pre recorded video).
The US hard and soft data continue to depict different economic scenarios, with market sentiment and soft data such as surveys weakening, but hard data such as non farm payrolls may not reflect the impact of tariffs until monthly or July. That is to say, just like at the end of 2022, the weak data did not translate into an economic recession. If Trump lowers tariffs afterwards, a similar scenario may play out in 2025.
Looking ahead to June, Nick Timiraos, the spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, stated after the release of non farm payroll data that "currently, this (referring to non farm) means that the Fed does not need to express any views on June policies at next week's meeting," and he added that "the April employment report reduces the possibility of a rate cut in June because only one employment report has been released before that. Goldman Sachs and Barclays have both postponed their expectations for the next interest rate cut from June to July.
